BLOGS BY BOB

The doomsayers on TV are continually reminding us that we may be headed for another “Great Depression,” the worldwide economic downturn that lasted from 1929 until 1942.  While the Roosevelt administration was making progress during those bleak years the depression could easily have been longer had it not been for World War ll and the massive spending it required.  I don’t want to downplay our current miseries.  Things are bad and millions are suffering but it is far too early to compare our present state of affairs to the great depression.

.

Yes, we are in a very bad recession that, according to some experts, began in 2007.  At last report our unemployment rate in the U.S. was around 8%, a far cry from the depths of the depression when non-farm unemployment was at 37%.  For this blog I wanted to offer some information on just how bad the great depression was.   Keep in mind, too, that not only were we in the throes of economic strangulation we were further disabled by one of the worst droughts in history— a drought so bad that our famed “breadbasket” was unable to produce much and millions of people were forced off their farms and into the devastated cities.  Breadlines were common, healthcare was nonexistent and tent cities or “Hoovervilles” were not unusual (Grapes of Wrath the movie starring a young Henry Fonda, tells the story quite well).

.

Wikipedia, a wonderful source of objective information offers the following on the great depression.  Remember that in 1929 the population of the U.S. was about 122 million.  Today it is estimated to be about 305 million.  Here’s what Wikipedia says: (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression) (click on the numbers in parentheses for more information.

Wikipedia; Effects of depression in the United States^[53]:

• 13 million people became unemployed. In 1932, 34 million people belonged to families with no regular full-time wage earner.^[54]
• Industrial production fell by nearly 45% between the years 1929 and 1932.
• Homebuilding dropped by 80% between the years 1929 and 1932.
• In the 1920s, the banking system in the U.S. was about $50 billion, which was about 50% of GDP.^[55]
• From the years 1929 to 1932, about 5,000 banks went out of business.
• By 1933, 11,000 of the US’ 25,000 banks had failed.^[56]
• Between 1929 and 1933, U.S. GDP fell around 30%, the stock market lost almost 90% of its value.^[57]
• In 1929, the unemployment rate averaged 3%.^[58]
• In 1933, 25% of all workers and 37% of all nonfarm workers were unemployed.^[59]
• In Cleveland, Ohio, the unemployment rate was 60%; in Toledo, Ohio, 80%.^[54]
• One Soviet trading corporation in New York averaged 350 applications a day from Americans seeking jobs in the Soviet Union.^[60]
• Over one million families lost their farms between 1930 and 1934.^[54]
• Corporate profits had dropped from $10 billion three years ago to $1billion in 1932.^[54]
• Between 1929 and 1932 the income of the average American family was reduced by 40%.^[61]
• Nine million savings accounts had been wiped out between 1930 and 1933.^[54]
• 273,000 families had been evicted from their homes in 1932.^[54]
• There were two million homeless people migrating around the country.^[54]
• One Arkansas man walked 900 miles looking for work.^[54]
• Over 60% of Americans were categorized as poor by the federal government in 1933.^[54]
• In the last prosperous year (1929), there were 279,678 immigrants recorded, but in 1933 only 23,068 came to the U.S.^[62][63]
• In the early 1930s, more people emigrated from the United States than immigrated to it.^[64]
• New York social workers reported that 25% of all schoolchildren were malnourished. In the mining counties of West Virginia, Illinois, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania, the proportion of malnourished children was perhaps as high as 90%.^[54]
• Many people became ill with diseases such as tuberculosis (TB).^[54]
• The 1930 U.S. Census determined the U.S. population to be 122,775,046. About 40% of the population was under 20 years.^[65]

Again, while I seek not to downplay our current travails I think it is important to have some perspective.  Do we need action?  Yes!  Can we let this continue?  No!  Is President Obama on the right road?  To be honest no one can say.  We simply don’t know.  We can only pray he is doing the right thing.  I for one, do not want him to fail because to do so dooms all of us. 

 

Also, please read and comment on my Organ Donation and Transplantation blogs on

http://bobsnewheart.wordpress.com .   You can visit my Facebook site, Organ Transplant Patients, Friends and You at  http://tinyurl.com/225cfh  OR — my Facebook home page http://www.facebook.com/home.php  

 

Could our faltering economy get some relief if we revamp judicial sentencing guidelines?

 

As we tighten our economic belts, states are looking at prisons as places in which money can be saved.  California for example is going to release thousands of non-violent offenders in order to diminish the cost of incarceration which runs into billions of dollars nationwide.

 

A 2008 New York Times article puts the problem in perspective.  http://realcostofprisons.org/blog/archives/2008/02/1_in_100_us_adu.html.  The Times quotes the Pew Center on the States as saying one in one hundred American adults is in jail — that’s well over two million people behind bars and some of them may not belong there.  On average, states spend almost 7 percent of their budgets on corrections, trailing only healthcare, education and transportation. And – the National Association of State Budgeting Officers says that costs the nation’s taxpayers $44 Billion a year. 

 

The question we have to ask ourselves is this, “Do all these people belong in jail?  Does the judicial system have enough latitude to consider broader forms of sentencing?”  For example, there are thousands of DWI first offenders in jail who might more appropriately be in chemical dependency treatment centers (where most of the cost is picked up by insurance). 

 

Today’s New York Times is reporting that, “The state Assembly has announced that it will pass legislation to repeal much of what remains of the state’s 1970s-era drug laws. (Albany Takes Step to Repeal Rockefeller Drug Laws http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/05/nyregion/05rockefeller.html?hp by Jeremy W. Peters)

“Skip to next paragraphThe proposal would be the first pivotal step in a push to dismantle the laws that tied judges’ hands and imposed mandatory prison terms for many nonviolent drug offenses.  The Assembly’s proposal restores judges’ discretion in sentencing in many lower-level drug possession crimes. Judges would be able to send many offenders to treatment programs instead of prison without receiving consent from prosecutors. In addition, the measure would permit about 2,000 prisoners to apply to have their sentences reconsidered.”

.

The Times story goes on to say, “Before any three-way compromise is reached, several sticking points need to be resolved. Those issues include whether drug offenders who do not complete treatment would be sent to prison and whether offenders would first need to be certified as addicted before they could enter a treatment program.

The State Legislature has already eliminated the stiffest provisions of the Rockefeller laws, doing away in 2004 with life sentences for drug crimes and reducing other penalties for the most serious offenses. But supporters of the Assembly plan believe that plan is an opportunity to finish what began in 2004.”

.

So one of my questions is, “By revamping sentencing can we accomplish two goals?  1) To alleviate prison overcrowding and therefore diminish the cost and 2) offer help (like treatment which works.  I personally can attest to that) to those who need it rather than incarceration.

.

What do you think?  Have a comment?    Write it in the space provided or email me at bob@baronson.org.   

Also, please read and comment on my Organ Donation and Transplantation blogs on

http://bobsnewheart.wordpress.com .   You can visit my Facebook site, Organ Transplant Patients, Friends and You at  http://tinyurl.com/225cfh  OR — my Facebook home page http://www.facebook.com/home.php  

As a semi-retired communication consultant I want to offer my critique of the conservative approach toward President Obama’s stimulus plan.  I don’t pretend to think that the plan will solve all of our problems but at least it addresses them.  So far conservatives have addressed big deficits and big government but have not even alluded to real people.  I learned long ago that you never discuss problems unless you have solutions.  Those who oppose the stimulus plan are excellent at discussing the problems it may create; they fail miserably in offering solutions.  

 

While I support President Obama’s efforts I’m going to offer some advice to my conservative friends.  Simply put, you’d better start sounding like you give a damn about the average American because right now you appear to care only about being disagreeable.

 

My personal philosophy is quite simple, “If communication is not your top priority all other priorities are at risk.”  Conservatives within and without congress have totally failed to communicate that they care.  Nothing proves it more than Rush Limbaugh’s statement that he “hopes President Obama fails.”  The obvious inference, then, is that he favors politics over helping Americans overcome adversity.  Where’s the Christianity in that statement Mr. Limbaugh?  Your hubris is exceeded only by your bombastic thoughtlessness.  Even some of your supporters think you’ve gone too far with that utterance. 

 

Here’s where Rush and the loyal opposition to President Obama have gone wrong.  The President talks about people losing their homes, conservatives discuss the national debt.  He talks about a lack of health care access, they talk about budget deficits.  He talks about families that are forced to go to food shelves, they talk about taxes.  He talks about millions of lost jobs, they talk about big government. 

 

The fact is when people are concerned about their own well being they simply don’t care about the difference between a billion and a trillion dollar deficit or big government.  When people are faced with unemployment or have already lost their jobs they don’t care about taxes.  Conservatives have totally ignored the prime tenet of effective, persuasive communication; talk about the audience and their needs — not about yourself and your beliefs. 

 

Perception is ninety percent of reality.  If people perceive that you care more about money than you do about them they will quit listening to you, worse yet they will probably turn against you. 

 

The issue here is people, not money.  Conservatives would do themselves some good to rethink how they articulate their opposition to the President’s plan.  I’m not saying they have to agree with him, they shouldn’t if they feel they might compromise their principles, but if they don’t change their attitude they will come out the big losers in this battle.

 

So far, Republicans have come across as the party of “No!”  Rarely do you hear any of them discuss human misery.  Rather — they seem to think they can connect with the public by attacking spending and big government.  What they should be doing is to offer some compassionate solutions rather than just saying no.  Here is a short list of what people really care about:

 

• Loss of job and income
• Loss of investments
• Loss of retirement funds
• Feeding their families
• Paying their bills
• Keeping a roof over their heads
• Providing adequate health care for their families
• An adequate number of public safety people to protect them from the rise in crime that always comes with a faltering economy.
• Proper education for their children

 

Effective, persuasive communication dictates that you speak in terms that have a direct impact on your audience.  When people are faced with losing their homes and their ability to feed their families they really don’t care about the national debt or deficit spending, they want solutions, not more problems. 

 

I’ll probably get a lot of nasty email from conservatives but before you send it re-read what I wrote.  It is very good advice, the same advice I would offer if I was being paid for it. 

 

Also, please read and comment on my Organ Donation and Transplantation blogs on

http://bobsnewheart.wordpress.com .   You can visit my Facebook site, Organ Transplant Patients, Friends and You at  http://tinyurl.com/225cfh  OR — my Facebook home page http://www.facebook.com/home.php  

While President Obama and Congress struggle with exactly what the new stimulus plan will accomplish no one seems to be looking at  wasteful spending, especially the very vocal Republican minority which loudly complains of too much spending but ignores the waste they created when they held both houses of congress and the presidency.  According to a 2005 report by the Heritage Foundation http://www.heritage.org/research/budget/bg1840.cfm we could save scores of billions of dollars if we eliminated really unnecessary spending.  Want some examples? 

      Unreconciled transactions totaled $24.5 billion in 2003.  The government knows that $25 billion was spent by someone, somewhere, on something, but auditors do not know who spent it, where it was spent, or on what it was spent. The unreconciled $25 billion could have funded the entire Department of Justice for an entire year.

      Over one recent 18-month period, Air Force and Navy personnel used govern­ment-funded credit cards to charge at least $102,400 for admission to entertainment events, $48,250 for gambling, $69,300 for cruises, and $73,950 for exotic dance clubs and prostitutes.

      Medicare wastes more money than any other federal program, For example, Medicare pays as much as eight times what other federal agencies pay for the same drugs and medical supplies. The evidence showed that Medicare paid an average of more than double what the VA paid for the same items. The largest difference was for saline solution, with Medicare paying $8.26 per liter compared to the $1.02 paid by the VA

      In 2000, Medicare’s payments for 24 leading drugs were $1.9 billion higher than they would have been under the prices paid by the VA or other federal agencies.   The reason, Congress hamstrung Medicare by forcing them to pay whatever price pharma companies wanted.  By law Medicare, unlike the VA, is not allowed to negotiate for the lowest possible price.  Thank you President Bush.

Putting it all together, Medicare reform could save taxpayers and program beneficiaries $20 bil­lion to $30 billion annually without reducing ben­efits. That would be enough to fund a $3,000 refundable health care tax credit for nearly 10 mil­lion uninsured low-income households.

 

And then there are redundancies, where several organizations exist to do the same thing.  More examples from the Heritage Foundation Report:  

• 342 economic development programs;
• 75 programs funding international education, cultural, and training exchange activities;
• 50 homeless assistance programs;
• 40 separate employment and training pro­grams;
• 3 agencies providing aid to the former Soviet republics;

 

Instead of grandstanding in their feigned righteous indignation over spending in the stimulous plan, I suggest Republicans look within and correct, in a bipartisan manner, the godawful mess they created.  If we eliminated the wasteful spending can you imagine how many jobs could be created, how many families could be provided with health insurance, how many people could be fed and how many students could be educated? 

 

Please comment here or email your thoughts to me at jaxbob@gmail.com

 

Also, please read and comment on my Organ Donation and Transplantation blogs on

http://bobsnewheart.wordpress.com .   You can visit my Facebook site, Organ Transplant Patients, Friends and You at  http://tinyurl.com/225cfh  OR — my Facebook home page http://www.facebook.com/home.php  

 

 

 

 

The Bush economy has left millions of families struggling and that is not a political statement — it is fact.  Justin Fox reports in the latest issue of Time Magazine that “75% of all income gains from 2002 to 2006 went to the top 1% of households making more than $382,600 a year.  Our national debt will increase this fiscal year by $500 billion, 1.5 million American homes fell to forclosure in 2007 and there will be even more this year” – and – the war in Iraq goes on.  I strongly suggest you read the May 26 issue of Time, it is an eye opener.

 

While politicians discuss statistics and polls, we rarely hear about real people.  What follows is the story of an American family.  Their challenges are typical of millions of Americans who live from paycheck to paycheck.  Most of which are one or two checks away from being homeless.  This story is true, I know the people I describe, only the names have been changed.

 

David and Susan Brown are in their early thirties and have two children, the youngest is a year old.  David is an electrician, Susan is a stay at home mom.  They live in a large city and are excellent parents and citizens.  Both are very bright and well informed — neither has a college education.

 

David is a talented electrician but this is a tough time for families like his.   New home and other construction is at rock bottom and as a result, the need for electricians is very low and there is a lot of competition for every job.  When he does find work it is usually for a single project.  When the project is over, he’s unemployed again.  Most of his jobs don’t offer benefits and even if they did he wouldn’t get them because he’s never on a job long enough to qualify, it is almost as though employers plan it that way. To top it off, David has to drive to a different, distant location with every job he takes.  Gasoline is almost $4.00 a gallon.  When he works he gets from $14.00 to $21.00 an hour — no overtime, no bonuses, no security and absolutely no perks — zippo, none!

 

In that brief paragraph, I have just described a key element of the Bush legacy.  He squandered a huge surplus and it is people like David and Susan who are paying for it (never mind the dead and wounded in the military)  These are good and kind people who worry each day about whether David will be employed the next day. They pray the family will stay healthy because the Emergency Room is their primary health care system and they don’t want it that way. The Browns represent four of the 47 million Americans who have no health insurance and it isn’t their fault. 

 

David and Susan’s families try to help out but David doesn’t want handouts, he wants work!  When out of work, which is quite often, he stands in line at temp agencies and union halls and searches the newspapers for employment ads. Often he’ll do handyman jobs, but those are rare.  People are putting “fix it” jobs on the back burner, too.  I have never heard either David or Susan complain, but for them the United States is in a depression..

 

There are many Americans complaining about how their stock market investments are declining, or that they will put off buying new homes, but they are not suffering.  David and Susan don’t complain – but they do suffer, they are in debt and must watch every penny very closely.

  

The family about which I have written is representative of millions of Americans who quietly suffer. David doesn’t want a government handout, he doesn’t want pity, he just wants a good job with some benefits.  If that is their state of the union then it is ours as well for they and others like them are the backbone of our country and without them there is no America. 

Please read and comment on my Organ Donation and Transplantation blogs on http://bobsnewheart@wordpress.com

 

Also…visit my Facebook site, Organ Transplant Patients, Friends and You at  http://tinyurl.com/225cfh  OR — my Facebook home page http://www.facebook.com/home.php